AI R&D Is Accelerating Towards Potential RSI in 2027

METR's deep-access investigation of Anthropic found that since October 2025 Anthropic's models have been improving on its internal AECI benchmark at roughly 1.9x the pre-October 2025 rate (95% CI 1.5–2.8x), with a majority of the acceleration likely attributable to AI doing R&D and no observed bottlenecks preventing further acceleration. METR reports that Anthropic redacted most of the evidence it found most informative, and critics such as Toby Ord argue the data are also consistent with a one-time level shift from the larger Mythos pretrain (implying ~1.4x). The post's author calls the situation grim and argues timelines may be shorter than the AI 2027 scenario, while noting the estimates could be wrong or bottlenecks could be hit.