Learning about Markets from Models: Evidence from an AI Hiring Platform

Using an AI hiring platform that builds firm-specific models from a standardized psychometric assessment, the authors show each firm's retention model is highly predictive for itself but no better than chance at other firms. Scoring every application against every firm reveals highly heterogeneous retention gains from submitting to a different firm, driven by two distinct mechanisms, and firms disagree about whether important traits improve or worsen retention at the margin. The authors argue these insights require a platform with access to both the full application pool and each firm-specific model, and are valuable to firms, policymakers, and platforms.