AI Could Do My First Job. Not My Last

Economist Jason Furman argues that AI could now perform most of the analytical and writing work he did as a junior CEA staffer and much of what a 35-person Council of Economic Advisers produced, suggesting roughly ten people plus AI could replicate it, while chair-level tasks like meetings, briefings and testimony remain human. He describes experiments (Paperwright, Blogwright, Briefwright) that generate economics papers, blog posts and briefings from short prompts, and weighs the tradeoffs for junior hiring and training pipelines.