Three Points on AI Safety

The author argues against "SURA" (Stop Unilaterally, Raise Awareness), contending that AI is nowhere near posing an existential threat within at least three years, that a sudden explosive capability takeoff is ruled out by the resource-intensive nature of training, and that pausing now would only let trailing companies catch up with riskier strategies. He adds that AI can cause serious but non-existential damage, that anti-AI advocates need to leave open the possibility they want AI to go well to remain credible, and that we will never know for certain that alignment is solved—only that the sun keeps coming up.