Can AI self-improvement overcome diminishing returns?

In a guest post for Noahpinion, the author argues that current evidence shows AI self-improvement loops would need to be roughly 5–10× stronger to sustain themselves, let alone produce a runaway intelligence explosion. OpenAI internal data shows models fully completing research tasks of only about 15 minutes at 80% success, far below benchmark and forecast horizons, while Anthropic estimates doubling overall AI progress would require roughly 40× productivity uplift. The author expects rapid AI progress and possible narrow superintelligence in highly verifiable domains, but sees no signs of accelerating returns and calls for better data.