Cleveland Fed: Unemployment Rate Rises in Occupations with High AI Exposure
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An economic commentary published by the Cleveland Fed found that since the spread of generative AI at the end of 2022, the unemployment rate in occupations with high AI exposure has risen by about 1 percentage point relative to others, with a larger gap among the 23–30 age group. The study tracked labor force flows using monthly CPS panel data. The study concludes that the rise in the unemployment rate is not due to a higher separation rate in these occupations, but rather to a marked slowdown in how quickly unemployed workers find new jobs. On this basis, the authors judge that generative AI may currently be raising the threshold for entering occupations with high AI exposure rather than directly replacing incumbents.
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A Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary finds that since generative AI became widely available, unemployment for workers aged 23–54 rose about 1 percentage point more in occupations most exposed to AI than in the least exposed, relative to a 2015–2019 baseline, with a larger gap for ages 23–30. Using CPS panel data and three AI-exposure measures, the authors attribute the rise mainly to lower job-finding rates in highly exposed occupations rather than higher separation rates, suggesting AI may be making it harder to enter these occupations rather than displacing existing workers.
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