Token volume on open model inference platforms grows near-exponentially

1. 00:35
   Nathan Lambert Interconnects

   How big is the open model economy today?

   The author presents research notes from the Interconnects Dashboard, an aggregator of open model adoption and performance data, arguing that existing measurements of open model adoption are highly imprecise due to noisy platform metrics, startup marketing figures, and imperfect public evaluations. Using open model inference startups Baseten, Fireworks, and Together AI as bellwethers, along with OpenRouter's reported open model token share, the notes show near-exponential growth in disclosed token volume, with Fireworks reporting more than 40T tokens per day served to customers' customized models. The author overlays these figures against Google's reported platform and API token volumes from earnings reports to gauge how open model inference compares with closed and hyperscale providers.

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