So Far, AI Pessimism Is Observationally Equivalent to AI Optimism

The author argues that AI pessimists and AI optimists both foresaw rapid AI progress when AI was still weak, so their predictive track records are roughly equal and the two hypotheses remain observationally equivalent given existing data. He contends the real dispute is over priors and the right reference class, and that common sense favors the view that technological progress is greatly beneficial on balance despite abundant drawbacks. He concludes that AI optimists are the visionaries worth humoring, though their outlandish predictions will not come true either.