AI pessimism vs. optimism debate described as observationally equivalent
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An analysis article argues that both AI pessimists and optimists have accurately foreseen rapid AI progress, and that the two positions are currently equally consistent with existing data, amounting to "observational equivalence." The article holds that the substance of this debate is a question of choosing reference classes, not a disagreement over facts, and advocates using common sense to select base rates. The author also claims that even if AI brings collateral harm on the scale of car accidents, it would be worth tolerating given its potential benefits. This judgment is the author's assertion, not a proven effect.
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- Hacker News AISo Far, AI Pessimism Is Observationally Equivalent to AI Optimism
The author argues that AI pessimists and AI optimists both foresaw rapid AI progress when AI was still weak, so their predictive track records are roughly equal and the two hypotheses remain observationally equivalent given existing data. He contends the real dispute is over priors and the right reference class, and that common sense favors the view that technological progress is greatly beneficial on balance despite abundant drawbacks. He concludes that AI optimists are the visionaries worth humoring, though their outlandish predictions will not come true either.
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