2017: "Future milestones in AI predicted by experts"

A survey of 352 researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015 found experts expect AI to outperform humans at translating languages by 2024, writing a high-school essay by 2026, driving a truck by 2027, working in retail by 2031, writing a bestselling book by 2049 and working as a surgeon by 2053. Respondents put a 50% chance on AI outperforming humans in all tasks within 45 years and on automating all human jobs within 120 years, with Asian respondents predicting these dates much sooner than North Americans. Most believed AI will benefit humanity, giving only a 5% chance of an "extremely bad" outcome such as human extinction.