Oxford and Yale survey: When will AI surpass humans?
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A research team from Oxford University and Yale University released an expert survey summarizing 352 AI researchers' judgments on when AI will surpass humans at various milestones. On average, respondents predicted that AI will surpass humans in translating languages by 2024, write a high school-level essay by 2026, drive a truck by 2027, and work as a surgeon by 2053. The survey also showed that respondents believe there is a 50% chance that AI will surpass humans on all tasks within 45 years, and that all human work could be automated within 120 years; most researchers believe AI will benefit humanity and put the probability of it causing human extinction at only 5%.
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- Hacker News AI2017: "Future milestones in AI predicted by experts"
A survey of 352 researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015 found experts expect AI to outperform humans at translating languages by 2024, writing a high-school essay by 2026, driving a truck by 2027, working in retail by 2031, writing a bestselling book by 2049 and working as a surgeon by 2053. Respondents put a 50% chance on AI outperforming humans in all tasks within 45 years and on automating all human jobs within 120 years, with Asian respondents predicting these dates much sooner than North Americans. Most believed AI will benefit humanity, giving only a 5% chance of an "extremely bad" outcome such as human extinction.
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