AI, work from home, and the young-graduate job market

US young college graduates face a weaker labor market, with a 22–26 bachelor's-degree employment-population ratio of 88% in September 2026, about 6% unemployment at end-2025, and longer job searches. Using Current Population Survey data, the analysis finds that occupational work-from-home adoption is significantly associated with slower young-graduate employment growth relative to mid-career workers, explaining 56% to 88% of the FTE employment-population decline from 2023 to 2026, while AI exposure and industry AI adoption show negative but statistically insignificant effects. The authors caution the model is suggestive rather than causal, given correlated factors such as interest rates, hiring swings, and immigration.