Stripe Economics: remote work drags down employment of young US graduates
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Stripe Economics publishes an analysis saying the spread of remote work may be an important factor depressing employment among young US college graduates, and AI is not the only explanation. The data given in the analysis: in September 2026, the employment-to-population ratio for US bachelor's degree holders aged 22–26 was 88%, one percentage point lower than three years earlier; at the end of 2025, the unemployment rate for this group was close to 6%, and the unemployed had been job hunting for an average of 12 weeks. The analysis also notes that blaming weak youth employment entirely on AI is complicated: employment among young people without a bachelor's degree has also declined since 2023. The mechanism proposed by the analysis is: remote work weakens in-person learning and agglomeration effects, making employers more inclined to hire older workers, thereby dragging down employment of young graduates. Stripe Economics says its analysis shows remote work is an important variable affecting young graduates' employment.
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- Hacker News AIAI, work from home, and the young-graduate job market
US young college graduates face a weaker labor market, with a 22–26 bachelor's-degree employment-population ratio of 88% in September 2026, about 6% unemployment at end-2025, and longer job searches. Using Current Population Survey data, the analysis finds that occupational work-from-home adoption is significantly associated with slower young-graduate employment growth relative to mid-career workers, explaining 56% to 88% of the FTE employment-population decline from 2023 to 2026, while AI exposure and industry AI adoption show negative but statistically insignificant effects. The authors caution the model is suggestive rather than causal, given correlated factors such as interest rates, hiring swings, and immigration.
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